Текст 19. Задание 1.Прочитайте исходный текст в ускоренном темпе

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SAXO BANK OUTLOOK Q2 2010: “SOLID GROWTH, BUT TROUBLE LOOMS”

In a follow-up to their financial outlook for 2010, Saxo Bank, the trading and investment specialist, has launched its economic outlook for the second quarter in 2010. Saxo Bank’s Strategy Team is revising its forecasts for the stock market slightly lower for the next three months.

Saxo Bank observes a slowdown in fundamental data both on a global monthly and a US weekly basis. The slowdown is broad-based, which is a concern although it is not yet dramatic. Leading indicator indices confirm the slowdown, but the Strategy Team still expects a solid growth in Q2. However, this growth should weaken towards the end of the year, where stimulus programs peter out and markets will be nervous about the impact of resetting Option-ARMs, Alt-A mortgages and Commercial Real Estate refinancing.

As a result of this, Saxo Bank advises investors to show great caution in constructing their portfolios. Monetary policy will continue to reflect a weak economic outlook and the Saxo Bank analysts would be surprised to see policy rates moving higher in the current year for the US, Euro-Zone and Japan.

Commenting on the outlook, David Karsbol, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank said:

“We see that the predictions we made in our Yearly Outlook 2010 overall were correct. The improvement in financial markets as well as consumer sentiment is not real, and even though the global economy seems to be recovering, it is worth reminding oneself that much of the current growth is based on government consumption and stimulus programs. We still expect growth in the next quarter, but this is based on parameters which could – later this year – have a negative impact on investment portfolios.”

The Quarterly Outlook Q2 2010 reflects on the following areas:

Market comment: Bloated optimism to peak higher?

Saxo Bank is still in the deflationist/disinflationist camp on a 12 to 24 months horizon, but the low interest rates are providing support for the housing markets, which in many countries stabilised and in some countries now make new highs.