Threats

· - The rural population is declining rapidly with many young people heading for the cities;

· - Much of the country suffered from environmental degradation in Soviet times, which, if not dealt with, could threaten agricultural production in the future;

· - The government has been threatening to reassert its former role of directing agriculture and has signed into being the United Grain Company, although the full implications of this development are as yet unclear;

· - The global recession has taken its toll. The economy is estimated to have shrunk by 8.1% in 2009, the outlook for household consumption is weak and unemployment spiralled to an eight-year high in March 2009. The economy will be improved in 2010 but consumer spending is likely to remain subdued for the short term; investment slow down and the government’s plans to expand the sector could also be affected.

Food independence is the ability of agrarian sector of the country to provide manufacturing, storage, processing and delivery to the population foodstuffs principal views, in quantity and the assortment necessary for an active healthy life. Food safety is not provided if manufacture of a foodstuff makes less than 75-80%, according to physiological norms.

Under the forecast of the international organisations the world situation on food safety the next decade will become aggravated. In the developed states exists two basic approaches in food safety:

· (1) The first—a priority in support of the national agricultural manufacturer (country EC);

· (2) The second—equal support of agricultural manufacturers and consumers of food (USA).

It is offered to use support of manufacturers and foodstuffs consumers in Russia.

All slides, schemes, tables are taken from official sources of the Ministry of Agriculture and the foodstuffs.

The budget of agricultural manufacturers in Russia (see Figure 1) is less than in the USA—with 2.7 times, in countries EC—with 5.4 times. Natural environmental conditions in Russia for manufacture of agricultural production are much more difficult.

Figure1. Level of support of agricultural manufacturers (In recalculation on 1 rouble of made production).

Problems of food safety become more important in world trade regulation. The Russian economists, name “food”, “food independence”, because of essential economic dependence of Russia in import of food and raw materials.

Growth of manufacture of agricultural production in Russia was accompanied by growth of import of the foodstuffs. The import volume has reached 35.2 bln. dollars, and the negative balance of export and import has made 25.8 bln. dollars (see Figure 2). Import growth goes much faster than export growth.

Figure 2. Export and import of agricultural production and the foodstuffs, bln. dollars of the USA.

Volumes of import of meat fresh and frozen, dairy products (see Table 1) have considerably increased. The basic increase in value of import has occurred at the expense of increase of average contract prices practically on all articles of food. In 13 times contract prices of meat fresh and frozen, and also fowl have increased.

Table 1

Import of Principal Views of Articles of Food and Agricultural Raw Materials to the Russian Federation, Thousand Ton

That is, high import dependence of the country by separate kinds of agricultural production and the foodstuffs remains. At the expense of import 36% of commodity resources today are formed. Sharply, there is a problem of dependence on import in the market of cattle-breeding production. The share of import in commodity resources of meat is estimated in 41%, milk in 27%. Import of pork from the beginning of 2009 has grown on 29%, and dried milk almost in 2 times.

Growth of internal manufacture of meat not to the full covered increase of consumer demand of the population was reflected in increase in volumes of its import (see Figure 3).

Figure 3. Meat import of everything, including fowl.

Relative density of import in formation of the general resources of meat and meat products (in recalculation on meat) has made in 2007, 33.2%, in 2008,32% at a target indicator of 34%.

Import of meat fresh and frozen has developed at 1,711 thousand level tons that on 14.9% more than in 2007, including: beef, 871.6 thousand tons (10.2%), pork, 822.1 thousand tons (19.6%). Fowl import has decreased on 5.5% to 1,223.8 thousand tons.

In 2008,dried milk import has increased21.3%, oils creamy8.1%, cheeses and cottage cheese, on 5.8%. In recalculation on milk it has been delivered dairy production of 7,315.3 thousand tons. The share of import dairy production in its general resources has made 17.6% against 17.3% in 2007.

All increase dependence of the food market and seriously infringes upon interests of the Russian agriculture.

The governmental policy in sphere of a guarantee of products of food should include necessarily risks and agricultural production threats.

It includes, for example, such factors as deficiency of competent staff, price disproportion, modern systems of supervision on the state of the market of manufacture etc..

To come nearer to level of the developed countries, it is necessary to solve simultaneously some the interconnected and capital-intensive problems:

· (1)Technological modernization of agriculture and the food-processing industry, sphere of industrial service of agrarian and industrial complex;

· (2)Formations of personnel potential of the branch, capable to master an innovation;

· (3)Work on manufacture restoration on the thrown agricultural grounds;

· (4)Creation a modern social infrastructure of rural territories (habitation, roads, etc.).

The guarantee of safety of foodstuff is connected with overcoming of following negative factors:

· (1)Substantial growth of threshold value of criteria of a saturation of home market by import production, for example, meat;

· (2)Low level of payment ability of the population for a foodstuff;

· (3)Not stability of system of the financial credit;

· (4)Insufficient level of development of an infrastructure of home market;

· (5)Moral and physical ageing of a material condition agroindustrial and a fishery complex;

· (6)Insufficient level of an innovation and investment actions;

· (7)Reduction of national genetic resources;

· (8)Probable expansion of production of biological fuel from agricultural production and raw materials;

· (9)Shortage of competent staff.