Какова на Ваш взгляд экономическая прочность России? Какое влияние на страну могут оказать разворачивающиеся процессы?

Фактически можно говорить о том, что «вторая волна» развивается уже как минимум три месяца (август-октябрь). Столько времени о ней сигнализируют фондовые и сырьевые биржи планеты. Но подползла она еще весной и только из-за фальши официальной экономической статистики ее не удается выявить. Но, в России по независимым оценкам снижение промышленного производства идет с зимы. Власти страны полны оптимизма, однако экс-министр финансов Кудрин постарался поскорее оставить свой пост: он понимает, что не должен пасть жертвой «второй волны», а справиться с ней не рассчитывает.

При серьезном снижении цен на сырьевые товары, российские денежные резервы иссякнут за год. Смягчать кризис власти готовятся по старому методу, раздавая помощь монополиям. Никаких структурных, а тем более, социально-политических мер в их запасе нет. Они рассчитывают переждать «вторую волну», как это уже было в 2008-2009 годах. А еще они надеются на то, что все в мире после кризиса останется так же, как и было. Но этого точно не будет. Впереди технологический переворот, включая революцию в электроэнергетике. На место финансовой глобализации придет глубокая региональная интеграция экономик.

Беседу вёл Алексей Козлов, rabkor.ru

"Second Wave" was launched
November 10, 2011, 12:02
Over the global economy once again dark clouds: a place of confidence took alarm. The markets have lost the positive dynamics of the first third of 2011, and experts are increasingly talking about the coming of the "second wave". What processes cause these estimates? Broke a genie from a bottle of the global crisis and that he expects Russia? On this and other reasons the head of the Center for Economic Studies, Institute of Globalization and Social Movements (IGSO) Basil Koltashov.
More and more publications appear that the "second wave" of the crisis started, or is coming. How is the recurrence of the crisis with debt problems in Europe and the U.S.?
Until the end of October stock market slump has developed against the background of a lack of national defaults. It was also announced that the Greek debt crisis is resolved (promised to write off 50% of the country's debt), and this coincided with the stabilization on the exchanges. There has been a strengthening of the ruble and the euro and the dollar weakened. But the temporary elimination of the threat of default first in southern Europe can work in the future as well as the removal of the threat of bankruptcy in August, the U.S., then there is no long-term work as a deterrent of the market downturn.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in the summer: no continuation of the previous monetary policy to avoid defaulting country can not over until August. The world froze in anticipation of a technical default of the United States, but it never came - Obama capitulated to the Republican opposition. It is possible that a critical requirement that the financial policy of the United States played its uselessness in 2011 for American industry. The President himself had to admit that to cope with the economic problems the government can not. This is not a result of an internal thrust to criticize Obama, but was the result of losing a significant proportion of their electoral support.
Maneuvering in year struggle with the Republicans, Obama tried to convince the public that defends its interests, and does not protect the financial corporation. He threatened to increase taxes on the rich and the promised jobs. Republican opposition was pressing on with the position of president and rastratnosti futility of his policy. The argument was not hard to bring state of the economy and American consumers. Against the backdrop of political struggles in the U.S. market in June and July remained stagnant, stagnant oil prices. If during this time, the U.S. would not accept a decision on reducing emissions and strengthen the dollar savings, it was logical to expect a new wave of upward market. It is not clear just one thing - how long she could continue.
Six months ago, Barack Obama looked like the winner of the "first wave" of global crisis. Now the situation appears different, partly the blame for this rests with the changes in U.S. monetary policy.What events are changes in their monetary policy?
Increased attention to American institutions of budget crisis in Greece masked the spring and summer preparing to change U.S. monetary policy. Ambiguity expressed financial crisis U.S. economic policy that has turned the upward trend on the trading floors of the planet. The market was waiting for preservation of the former U.S. monetary policy. As soon as the apparent futility of such would hope, would begin withdrawal of capital into dollars.Oil prices went from lukewarm to reduce vibrations. The dollar began to strengthen. That's what happened later in August and September.
The fight against the Republican policies of President Obama has led to serious concessions on his part. U.S. monetary policy began to correct that perception has turned the situation in the markets of the world economy. At least "good" became "bad", what really was the situation. Along with the tightening of fiscal policy, the question of control over the activities of the Fed.Position at the Federal Reserve allowed it to Obama without the sanction of the authorities to issue dollar and willfully to use the proceeds from the sale of U.S. debt. In a detailed investigation of the Federal Reserve rose to the need for nationalization of the central bank. But even the periodic monitoring could help strengthen the dollar, and most importantly - to reduce the emission of money in favor of financial speculators.
According to the statement made by U.S. Senator Barney Sanders, the audit the Fed, the organization has provided for the crisis to 16 trillion. dollar "gray" loans. Illegal aid received U.S. and foreign banks. According to Sanders, the Fed has provided billions of dollars in loans to banks, which worked its former employees. So, JP Morgan Chase has received from the Federal Reserve 390 billion dollars in financial aid. The Director-General of the bank before he was a member of the Board of Directors of the New York branch of the Federal Reserve. Interest on the "shadow" the Fed loans were extremely low, close to zero.Unprecedented Federal Reserve audit was made possible by an amendment to the law on financial sector reform Wall Street, proposed by Senator Barney Sanders. Check the Federal Reserve became part of the opposition attack on Obama.
What prompted all this? Even in winter revealed a contradiction between profitable financial corporations and interest rate Obama's industrial capital. Cheap dollar outweighed the rise in commodity prices and the depreciation of money capital companies.
What led to the current stock market performance?
August began to calm global markets. It seems that the removal of the threat of bankruptcy should help the new U.S. recovery.However, several days passed, and saw the first crash. No announcement about the launch of a new program of monetary recharge, stock barometer again began to show the real state of the economy. The markets were expecting monetary policy changes in the U.S., they do not like a compromise between the Democratic president and Republicans.
After a series of stock market collapses in the first half of August there was a pause. The fall has stopped, that was more like a truce banks and speculators, American political elites. U.S. authorities have had a chance to return to the old monetary policy, but they could not use it. From 107 dollars a barrel Brent crude rose to nearly $ 110. Recovery was short, and the exchange again became feverish. The reason for that was not only a reversal, albeit partial, in the financial policy of the United States, but also problems in the real economy. Be treated as solely financial crisis would be a mistake. Financial arrangements were deter downturn, as soon as they weakened the economic crisis has given signs of increasing.
In October, beginning of a new pause. Perceive it as the culmination of previous acute period would be at least premature.
How would you rate the economic situation in the U.S.?
Another August 25th U.S. president was forced to admit that his government can not solve the pressing problems of the national economy. "Unemployment is still too high", - concluded Obama.According to him, further, "economic recovery" will be accompanied by rising unemployment, the U.S. president did not propose to consider as a manifestation of the crisis. According to a poll shortly before the population, 86% were convinced that the economic situation in the United States has deteriorated. In June, the figure was 80%. It is noteworthy that 49% (according to the August poll) believed that the deterioration occurred only in the last month.
The U.S. administration is trying to convince the world that all is not so bad. Official statistics have not yet captures the reduction in industrial production, it grows slowly, and employment. In September, the unemployment rate remained equal to 9.1% in August. Industrial output in September was loaded on 77.4%.However, the decline in commodity and stock markets can be interpreted as a signal - a reflection of problems with the sale of goods. The problem is unlikely to be American: U.S. retail sales rose in September by 1.1%, which is considered a good indicator. It is true, gives a different picture of the construction industry, there clearly are signs of stagnation, if not recession.
Picture of the economy complicates monetary authorities injected, they are not stopped in the United States. Corporations continue to receive financial support, and national debt limit is not reached anywhere. However, if you take a look at Western Europe, the situation there is to recognize the worst in the U.S..
Is it right that the official statistics do not yet grasps the signs of a "second wave", while the markets in August-October gave a different picture?
It is quite true. The reason for this lies in both the "slowness" of statistics, and the reluctance of governments to show the true state. Declared states of the world data on the continuing growth of GDP and only recently celebrated his moderation can not be viewed as objective information. Correction of economic statistics is a lot of entry into force of the negative factors that it is obliged to disclose in advance and pick up.
In 2010, Russia experienced a fantastic rise in prices for many food products. During 2011 the situation has improved or did not much worse in price terms. But why in the stores more imported food?
The leading Western retailers professed principle: low prices - lower retail prices. In Russia there are different rule. In an effort to obtain the lowest purchase price, the business tries to keep retail prices high. In terms free purchase of goods outside the country, it is natural selection is not in favor of domestic producers, that is in favor of higher profit margins. Plays a role here, and inadequate infrastructure, which the authorities - involved ensuring a profitable commodity exports - is not interested to develop.
Experts have concluded that the composition of many products - milk, meat products the share of imported components is very high. In fact, the poorest segment of society has to eat some with gardens, and partly at the expense of imported meat, soy and milk. Bread and cereals are still mostly Russian.
Russia expensive country, again threatening the weakening of the ruble following the fall in commodity prices soon be a blow to the domestic market, as will Russia's booming import substitution.The story of the rise in prices in the country is not finished and as soon as the price of oil will drop, the ruble will be dropped against the dollar, and prices - of course rise. Import substitution will take place, but what to replace the destroyed consumer demand?Russia's economy becomes more and more peripheral features.Specialization of its raw materials and is in favor of its removal to foreign markets for foreign producers of goods, the market opens the country. However, due to the crisis can be expected to increase the weight of domestic production of food, but the realization of this vision is associated with the removal from power of the commodity business.
It was recently announced the imminent adoption of Russia's WTO accession, it finally seems to want the West. As the country's accession to the WTO will affect domestic production and food market?
Nothing good comes from Russian WTO membership should not wait. In late May, our institute has submitted a detailed report, "Russia's WTO accession: the threat of economic disaster» (http://www.igso.ru/articles.php?article_id=340). WTO should be the raw material monopolies, the domestic market will be open to foreign goods much more than now. WTO will be a blow for Russian manufacturers. Exporters will benefit the population - will lose. Impact on the economic situation in the country will be negative, which probably will be especially noticeable in the light of the worsening global financial crisis.
What do you think the price outlook for gasoline and diesel fuel on the domestic market?
If world oil prices continue to fall, as part of a "second wave" of crisis, rolling on the stock exchanges in August, the increase in fuel prices in Russia are most likely to occur in the weakening of the ruble. Slow or fast devaluation in downward trend over the oil expected. Rising fuel prices - a major source of rising prices in general. Vast distances of Russia and 20% share of the cost of transport in the price of the goods every time making price increases for gasoline and diesel is very noticeable to the public.Expensive use of transport, both personal and public. The least growth in fuel prices affects the service, but the decisive role played by most of their vulnerability in the market: they are ready to save people easier.
Oil companies have long regarded the Russian prices for gasoline and diesel oil for ordinary consumers low. The state is controlled by just these - Commodity groups of business, it is not seriously interested to resist the growth of fuel prices. Populist intervention of some senior officials are not working, because no one wants to make it work. With a decrease in world oil prices and the presence of a solid, not rocking the ruble price of gasoline could not grow.
In the EU, gasoline remains by Russian standards, is very expensive. So because of taxes to pay for the Greeks 1.7 liter euro. This level is still the ultimate dream of Russian raw materials business for the domestic market. But do not think that the price in euros per liter for Russia is not achievable.
I remember the story of the vain wishes of the Government, addressed to companies and TNK-BP "Gazprom oil" on the occasion of raising gasoline prices. In the event of another spike in fuel prices will act the same way?
Probably, yes. In general, the mechanisms of regulation of prices in Russia are working very strange. For some unknown reason, the prime minister spent his time in public criticism of the company "Gazprom oil" and TNK-BP. They had every right to ignore the wishes of the government. However, if the government sought to somehow adjust prices within the country, it would not be limited to requests. It would be necessary to adopt legislative or administrative measures: establish maximum commercial prices and order price of education. Otherwise, the criticism of corporations for failing to follow the recommendations of the authorities seems naive, if not cynical. It is unclear why they should deny themselves the additional revenue, if the government does not want to restrict it in the public interest.
It would hardly be fair if the authorities will punish someone for ignoring the new good wishes. If the government had sought to achieve a result rather than its humanistic position is declared in the face of population, it would have acted without the advice and threats of reprisals, and within the law and their responsibilities.When we see a new rise in fuel prices, the authorities are unlikely to respond to companies persecution. All as before will be similar to the state public service announcements. Before the social populism that does not hold.
In Russia, the car is sometimes called the attribute of "middle class", unless he is too old. How do you assess the boundaries of today's "post-crisis" era, and what is the future of this layer in connection with the prospects of the economy?
The boundaries of the middle class can not hold exactly. And not only that the classification is narrow - the consumer, but also in the fact that social security mean a lot. The share of middle class in Russia can hardly be fairly assessed over 10-12%. Measure the middle class in the country to western standards, with the difference in the price of life in many ways is not in our favor.Approximate monthly income of the middle class should be 1-1.5 thousand euros in the region and 2-2.5 thousand euros in the capital. Such salaries are few Russians. And that kind of money in Russia, you can get the living conditions worse than in Western Europe. In general, the middle strata of the class is only consumption, but not the socio-economic class.
Samootnesenie to the middle class does not mean anything.However, the trouble is that the commercialization of education and medicine will soon reduce this layer is quite strong. The Russians, belonging to the middle classes to live relatively smoothly, precisely because it saves on safeguards. If they ever will be paid, then very quickly lose confidence and and fall out of the category of middle class - get a lot of the impoverished population. We have also decided to measure everything at a lower bracket, to show how everything turned out fine. In fact, very few Russians live decently. And if official statistics are kept notes growth in real income, but officials promise to the future, it is unlikely seriously to treat this. Despite the stabilization of markets in October, does not mean termination of the black band on the Russian economy does not not count. Without this increase in living standards will continue to exist only in the records of the bureaucracy.
It would not have been numerically small native middle class, he expects the fate of European and American middle class - the cut.Moreover, a significant role to play in this state.
What are the prospects in this case, the labor market? And how do they relate to different segments of the Russian economy?
It all depends on the ability of neo-liberal government of the planet or not to contain the crisis and how the development time. In October, the "second wave" of its stock performance was frozen with assurances about the fact that the bankruptcy of Greece impossible. Countries to write off 50% debt, the decision was made. The EU has raised the reserve fund - up to one trillion euros. The trouble is that the fiscal and debt crisis in Europe only a consequence of problems in the economy. As the experience of the 2009-2010 development of the crisis can be frozen, you can even initiate some kind of revival. But all these are temporary solutions, the causes of the global crisis are not eliminated and the conditions for a new upswing not create, so the recovery in the economy is false every time - a dead end.
For Russia, the crucial global commodity prices. Since May of this market interrupted the upward trend. And if oil is grown after a recent fall, the aluminum is still depreciating. Financial interests of the planet await the decision of the European debt issue.Probably in the EU default rates by year's end will not, but the possibility of continuing decline in the commodities market is preserved. It is preserved and the stock market. As a result, the Russian economy may once again begin to shrink rapidly, which will result in layoffs. And the authorities little depends on: their influence on global processes is small, which reflects the peripheral position of the Russian economy. Even banking stability is more than hype. Analysis of cases of "Bank of Moscow" indicates that 50% of assets in the portfolios of domestic credit institutions at a critical moment may appear to be poor.
Domestically oriented sectors of the economy are weaker and less secure politically important. Resource sector and the big banks can rely on state support. But industrial and commercial enterprises the average vulnerable. Especially bad for them weakness of Russian consumers. If the "second wave" will be able to turn around, and she has already appeared in the August-October on world markets as frightening relapse in 2008, we can expect considerable reductions. Perhaps the situation again 2008-2009, and the company will try to reduce its staff by 10-20%.But we can not exclude that the "resolution" of the debt crisis in the EU markets freeze for a while, and a negative scenario will be transferred in December or even in 2012.
Russian authorities plan to retain control over the processes in the economy until after the election season. With a sharp deterioration in market conditions, they will try to curb the rise in unemployment by giving grants and orders. The funds should provide a new privatization.
Many have concluded that Russian Post runs last year, much worse. No result whether it is the very preparation for privatization?
This is certainly true. However, officials are accountable for improving the commercial viability of the Post. In 2009, her first since 2005 and has managed a profit without loss. 2010 turned buildup of income. This data must show potential investors that the purchase of the new company does not bezvygodnoe case.Privatization of our time is different from the privatization of the 1990s. Russian Post is entitled to work with loans, deposits, as well as for collection. That is, it is construed as an interesting company.
I think that Russian Post on the results of 2011 will increase revenues by increasing use of its services. There is also a mechanism for expanding the number of services is not a transit profile, which can be implemented later. Is it possible to expand trade souvenirs, to master the production and sale of copies of old Russian lithographs. Another option would be to develop the service fast delivery of mail. If there is Russian Post will succeed and will offer low prices, it is to press on the market private e-mail structure. Mail lacks funds to upgrade and give the impression that she was trying to work more intensively and reduce staff.Management complains that the workers "eats" 60% of revenue, that nothing good people are not promises. It is clear that non-technical solutions, and layoffs will increase the tool "productivity", as understood by management.
When you talked about the vulnerability of Russian banks, you had in mind and "Sberbank of Russia?"
Savings not only the largest Russian banks by assets, but also the most reliable. During the first half of the bank increased its net profit under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) almost tripled over the same period last year. It rose to 176.1 billion rubles from 64.3 billion rubles. However, if problems arise in the banking sector, and Sberbank would also deal with difficulties.
The largest Russian banks have expanded mortgage lending, in the first half of 2011, Sberbank lowered the rate to 8%, but then she got up. Russian banks are rarely willing to give loans to individuals below 9.5%, but the major institutions have been able to support the construction industry loans. But interest rates are so high that the pressure of negative processes in the global economy can return as the Russian market and the credit industry in a state of crisis. Remove it in 2009, it was extremely difficult.Over all, helped in the White House steps, giving rise to global financial stability.
As in the banking, insurance market state will prevent the possible bankruptcy of removal from the market of weak players. Controlled redistribution of the market remains the most likely prospect, both in terms of stability and development in a recession. The refusal of the introduction of new types of compulsory insurance may be dictated by political considerations. Compulsory insurance of real estate may not be entered. By the way, and with the devaluation of the ruble will be careful of power until the election procedure is not completed. But this does not mean that the weakening of the national currency with the new refuse lowering commodity prices.
If we talk about the banking sector, there is still a problem of "irrecoverable" loans. What is the root of this phenomenon?
"Irreversible" loans, a form of withdrawal of capital from banks.Interested persons from among the owners and managers thus recovered funds they need in other areas of business, the way is definitely not clean. The problem exists not only at banks called the state. The same credits may be issued by private banks. In substandard in terms of bank decisions are the most interested members of the management of the bank. It just may be extremely profitable.
VTB was forced to restructure debt on bonds Mirax Group under the beneficial interest. Analysts have questioned how the bank could invest so much money in such a troubled asset? However, Mirax Group has long been a successful business. The project is developing dynamically, and the problem appeared only at the beginning of the global crisis. The situation is quite standard.
Withdrawal of capital from state-owned banks is a problem of shareholders - including the government. Depending on whether they will be able to put under the control of management and whether the largest of them are interested in changing the situation and possible changes for the better. To date, successfully overcome many of the old problem is Sberbank.VTB, in contrast, shows a picture of rooting problems. We must not forget that next to a disaster is not enough good governance is a problem of integrity management.
Not so long ago it was announced that 45 Russian companies joining the UN Global Compact (The Global Compact), which is estimated as an expression of the growing attention to the social responsibility of business. What causes companies to join this type of agreement?
The main concern of accession is for Russian companies to foreign investors an opportunity to show its adequacy to international standards. But there is no real motive to follow the rules of the UN Global Compact for the Russian business there.The treaty itself - only a fashion venture. The Russian reality principles of the Treaty agree poorly, but with global reality things are not better. But the problem here, since the contract is more propaganda than the basis for any changes in environmental business or social responsibility.
For domestic business sale of securities in foreign markets and borrowing from abroad requires urgent "to hang" your image to the western standards. In reality, increasing social responsibility of business, but there are advertising the game around this concept.On the real socially responsible domestic companies can tell a lot working in the underground trade unions.
If at the time to move from economics to politics: Do you think, why a presidential candidate Vladimir Putin became, instead, Dmitry Medvedev, and can we talk about the end of billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov as a politician?
I do not think it's all over for Prokhorov - politics. His removal from his post as leader of the "just cause" with the election of Putin's presidential candidate is connected, but connected with the economic situation in the world. Putin has a reputation for being the era of economic growth, if not the creator of this growth. Of course, the rise of the 2000s, record fair in his address, but Medvedev authority in society can not boast. Since the spring has become apparent threat of a large downturn in the economy, and in August the situation is more complicated. World commodity prices have decreased in comparison with April, the ruling party and need a reliable and authoritative leader - a man in the eyes of the population increases the legitimacy of the regime. It is as important as achieving the greatest turnout.
Prokhorov was not needed moderate Putin's party apparatus. His scandal was removed from his post. However, he showed himself a man of rigid class position, although he had to regain back some of the historical claims. Right wing neo-liberals can claim him as a leader later, at the time of the revival of the country's political struggle, where classes and groups of them will rebuild their political structures. It happens on a new phase of the global crisis. This destroys the nomination of Putin's plan of radical neo-conservatives of the rapid shift in official policy toward the hard neoliberalism: the constructive "left wing" should be "United Russia" party and the right - the right to grow up. Hence the fall of bureaucratic interest in the "Fair Russia".
We can assume that in the circumstances, the course of public policy has shifted to the right. Russians are not ready to be imported from Europe methods of direct transcriptions of the costs of the crisis on the population, but with this they will face.
What impact has the global economic crisis in Russia in recent years and that threatens us in the future?
In the world there are signs of acute crisis, which did not disappear after 2008. It was only artificially - by U.S. policy set aside for starting positions. With them he was trying to break forth several times, but each time was restrained by new infusions of foreign currency in banks. Now the planet is experiencing stock market crisis, the phase of the birth of a new industrial decline.Due to it objectively - the weakness of the mass of consumers as recession 2008-2009.
In 2010-2011, the Russian domestic market received a powerful blow. Rising food prices has weakened an already poor consumers. Therefore, based on internal factors in Russia are ready for the recession. Since the beginning of August to reduce global exchanges, the Russian stock market began to crumble.
The Russian economy in early 2011 was not observed as powerful as the signs of depression in Southern Europe or the Arab States. While some countries have lost from the stabilization of 2009-2010, Russia in the face of the raw material monopolies won. But the country's dependence on developments in foreign markets has increased. And if, before the fall of 2008 the authorities were genuinely convinced that the global crisis have nothing to fear, then in 2011 they began to get nervous before "black" in August. Areas of export-oriented economy has lost profitability, and domestically oriented manufacturing areas are very weak. When visibility is the best position in 2009-2011 due to high oil prices, Russia's economy is more vulnerable than the U.S. economy or the countries of Western Europe.
Since August, the world economy is experiencing a stock market downturn, the beginning of the collapse of speculation. October frozen stock downturn still be regarded as continuous. Especially because there was a new November 1 stock exchanges fall, following the false promise that the Greek Prime Minister Papandreou to hold a referendum on membership in the euro area and the fate of the debt. It should also be noted that the history of fiscal and debt crisis in the EU is not over. While he appeared in the south of the eurozone, but France and Germany are not immune from it: their public debts are significant.
The signal was forthcoming falling markets correction in May.Then came a pause of several months. It is essential that the events of 2011 were a repetition of similar events in 2009 and 2010. Then too, there is a correction and advanced summer break, but resumed growth markets in the fall. Changing the U.S. monetary policy, the transition to its more modest - "economical" form, has led to the fact that two years of artificially delayed collapse began. The general tendency for economies in the world is falling on the stock and commodity exchanges, which finally lead to the global crisis phase of depression. Necessary to prepare for what the world can survive an even stronger decline than in 2008-2009. And if he will not turn around, the crisis back in 2012. By virtue of the laws he has to perform destructive work at first, then to start being creative.
Russia May suffers from declining global commodity prices. The price of gold from 2008 to 2011 has doubled. This means that the price of a barrel of oil at $ 100, the Russian business received about $ 50 beginning in 2008. However, it is logical to expect a strengthening of the dollar in the fall in commodity prices.Reduction in the price of oil - the outlook for the coming months, if the crisis is not new at the time suspended. Then she will remain at a reduced level for a long time, perhaps several years. Even the current prices for oil and metals industry strangle and destroy consumer demand in Europe and North America. The collapse in commodity prices - the collapse of speculation in commodity markets ease the pressure on the global industry, but raise it to Russia. It seems much more is waiting for an increase in social and economic problems than the West.
What do you think the economic strength of Russia? What is the impact on the country may have the unfolding processes?
In fact, we can say that the "second wave" of developing for at least three months (August-October). So much time on it signaled the stock and commodity exchanges of the world. But she crawled back in the spring and only because of falsity of official economic statistics, it can not be identified. But in Russia, according to independent estimates of decline in industrial production comes from the winter. The country's authorities are optimistic, however, ex-Finance Minister Kudrin tried to leave his post as soon as possible: he realizes that he must not fall victim to the "second wave" and deal with it does not count.
Following a serious decline in commodity prices, Russia's cash reserves will run out for the year. Mitigate the power crisis in the old method of preparing, distributing aid monopolies. No structural, and even more so, social and political action in their stock there. They expect to ride out the "second wave", as was the case in 2008-2009. And they hope that everyone in the world after the crisis will remain the same as it was. But it just will not. Ahead of the technological revolution, including the revolution in power. In place of financial globalization comes a deep regional integration of economies.