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By Peter Garnham, December 12, 2006. The dollar lost ground against the euro after the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave US interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. The news shocked nobody, but it was the accompanying statement that was the focus of the market’s attention. Those hoping for any surprise were disappointed, however, as the Fed stuck largely to its previous statements, saying recent readings on core inflation had been elevated and there was the potential for continued inflationary pressures in the US economy.

A. Match the following words to make collocations from the text: 1. to sustain e. ground 2. inflationary d. expectations 3. core b. readings 4. to elevate f. inflation 5. to highten a. pressures 6. to lose c. gains

But Simon Derrick, currency research chief at Bank of New York, argued that the support once given to the dollar by monetary policy was fast receding. “When the chips are down for a currency, it takes much more to reinvigorate its fortunes,” he said. Earlier in the session, the greenback rallied briefly after a government report showed the US trade deficit fell to $58.9bn in October, its lowest level in 14 months. But it failed to sustain gains amid cautious trading from investors awaiting the Fed’s decision about US interest rates. By mid-afternoon in New York, the dollar was 0.2% lower against the euro at $1.3260. Against the yen the dollar was flat at Y117.00 as the Japanese currency came under pressure amid fading speculation the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates this month. The yen fell to an all-time low of Y155.11 against the euro, but recovered to Y155.00 – still down 0.1% on the session. The Japanese currency also reached eight-year troughs against sterling and the Swiss franc, falling 0.6% to Y230.25 and 0.1% to Y97.35 respectively. Hawkish rhetoric from Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members last week heightened expectations that the central bank could act to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% after its meeting on December 19. But soft economic data, including weak corporate goods inflation figures yesterday, has dampened expectations for a move in December. Analysts said reports from Japan suggested that the BoJ had given up on the possibility of a rate rise this month and intended instead to tighten policy at its January meeting. The euro was supported after Germany’s ZEW index of investor sentiment for December came in stronger than expected. Jennifer Upham, European economist at Capital Economics, said the report implied the outlook for the German economy remained positive. “This survey suggests that the German economy still has plenty of underlying momentum and will do nothing to stop the European Central Bank raising interest rates at least once more next year,” she said. Sterling rose 0.5% against the dollar to $1.9670 and 0.4% to £0.6732 against the euro after figures revealed that UK Consumer Price Index inflation in November rose to its highest annual rate since the series began in January 1997. “This will not be very well received at the Bank of England, and will undoubtedly fuel expectations that UK interest rates are headed higher in 2007,” said Howard Archer, chief European economist at Global Insight. (Source: http://www.ft.com)

B. Fill in the blanks in the following statements with the words below: interest rate trough invigorate Federal Reserve Bank core inflation Fed A 1.____is a period of time when the level of sth is low, especially a time when a business or the economy is not growing (e.g. there have been peaks and 2._____ in the long-term trend of unemployment). When something makes a situation, an organization, etc. efficient and successful, gives it vitality and vigour it is said to 3.______ the situation. The percentage of an amount of money that's paid for its use over a specified time period is called 4. ______. The central bank of the United States which governs monetary policy and derives its authority from the US Congress is called the 5.____. Just as you can borrow from a bank, a bank can borrow from 6._____. Created in 1913, this bank for bankers can influence short-term interest rates and bank balance sheets. The rate of inflation excluding certain sectors whose prices are most volatile, specifically food and energy, is called 7.______.

TEXT 2

By P.Garnham, S.Daneshkhu and C.Brown-Humes November 30, 2006 Sterling continued to rise against the dollar, peaking at $1.9748, its highest level since its ejection from the European exchange rate mechanism in September 1992. The pound has risen 14.6% against the dollar this year and analysts were predicting the imminent breach of the $2 mark.

A. Match the following words to make collocations from the text: 1. exchange rate e. effects 2. currency d. breach 3. sustained b. mechanism 4. imminent f. strategist 5. beneficial a. rise 6. currency c. basket

The rise prompted the Bank of England to seek to calm worries about the competitiveness of UK exporters. Mervyn King, the Bank governor, said that when measured against a basket of currencies, weighted according to Britain’s trade in manufactured goods, the pound had not risen nearly as much. Speaking to the House of Commons Treasury select committee, he said the dollar’s fall made it “much more difficult” for UK companies to export goods across the Atlantic but the UK’s overall export market was “pretty stable”. The US accounts for about 15% of UK exports but Europe is at least three times more important in trade terms. On a trade-weighted basis sterling has risen almost 6% this year. Analysts said the pound could be heading above $2, a level last hit on September 9, 1992. Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York, said: “The speculative community has its sights set on $2. It’s going to be hard to get them off the case.” Such talk has worried Britain’s business leaders. Steve Radley, chief economist at EEF (Engineering Employers’ Federation), the manufacturers’ organisation, warned that a sustained rise in the pound above $2 would lead to “a lot more companies suffering”. The Institute of Directors said the dollar’s slide might coincide with a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the US economy next year. Graham Leach, chief economist, said: “There’s a great deal of concern about 2007 because if the US economy does slow more sharply, we could get a double whammy of weaker demand and the additional price factor.” CBI (Confederation of British Industry), the employers’ organisation, said it expected the pound’s strength to continue against the dollar but there was an upside. Ian McCafferty, CBI’s chief economic adviser, said: “Given that most energy and commodity inputs are priced in dollars, the rise in sterling will also have beneficial effects on inflation.” VisitBritain, the tourism body, said its latest research showed that, other things being equal, a 10% fall in the dollar would lead to a 14% drop in earnings from US visitors. The US is Britain’s most valuable tourism market, accounting last year for a fifth of the £14.25bn of spending by inbound visitors. But the dollar’s weakness is good news for companies selling US holidays. Sue Ockwell of the Association of Independent Tour Operators, said some US specialists were reporting a 30% rise in bookings for next year compared with this year. (Source: http://www.ft.com)

B. Fill in the blanks in the following statements with the words below: Federal Reserve Bank European exchange rate mechanism European Monetary System core inflation Fed The 1.______ (or ERM) was a system introduced by the European Community in March 1979, as part of the 2.______ (EMS), to reduce exchange-rate variability and achieve monetary stability in Europe, in preparation for Economic and Monetary Union and the introduction of a single currency, the Euro, which took place in January 1999. The central bank of the United States which governs monetary policy and derives its authority from the US Congress is called the 3.____. Just as you can borrow from a bank, a bank can borrow from 4._____. Created in 1913, this bank for bankers can influence short-term interest rates and bank balance sheets. The rate of inflation excluding certain sectors whose prices are most volatile, specifically food and energy, is called 5.______.

TEXT 3

By J.Chung July 26, 2006 Since late last year, foreign investors have been stuffing themselves with kwacha. Though it sounds like an exotic fruit, the kwacha is in fact the currency of Zambia, now seen by some investors as one of the most promising economies in Africa. According to a report this month by the International Monetary Fund, foreign holdings of Zambian government securities – primarily by hedge funds – rose from a “negligible amount” to K540bn ($150m) during 2005, mostly in the last quarter. By May this year, that figure had risen to K840bn.

A. Match the following words to make collocations from the text: 1. to set sth. e. group 2. emerging d. markets 3. disparate b. tumbling 4. to curb f. economic growth 5. selling a. upheaval 6. geopolitical c. spree 7. debt g. forgiveness

This influx has strengthened the currency and sent Zambian interest rates tumbling: bond yields have fallen by half from average levels of more than 20% last year. The sudden interest illustrates a broader theme in emerging markets over recent years: the constant hunt by bond investors for extra yield and their willingness to seek it in ever more far-flung locations. Lately, the search has often led them to countries benefiting from the current commodities boom. Zambia, a major copper producer, is one example, though debt forgiveness and growing confidence in the country’s macro-economic management have also helped it to attract foreign money. Then there is the less exotic, disparate group sometimes known as the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India and China. The four are very different, but their size gives them the shared potential to dominate the global economy in the decades to come. Yet the story of the emerging markets is incomplete without mentioning the turmoil the asset class has endured in the past – and the fallout. Think Long Term Capital Management, the US hedge fund, which imploded in 1998 on the back of Russia’s default. As recently as May, investors got a sharp reminder of the risks when emerging markets experienced a sell-off. Investors took fright at apparently rising inflation and fears that central banks might raise interests too far, draining liquidity and curbing economic growth. But Arnab Das, head of emerging markets research at Dresdner Kleinwort, saw the recent downturn as different from those in the past when “countries fell like dominoes”. Instead, the reaction was more nuanced. “There is a lot of discrimination going on across countries,” he says. “It is also important to distinguish between the different asset classes. Equities and currencies were the biggest hit during the sell-off, because that is where most of the aggressive risk-taking happened last year and during the first quarter of this year.” It is not just the allure of yield. Bulls argue that many emerging economies are attractive investments. About half the outstanding bonds issued by emerging economies are now rated investment grade, up from about 30% in 2001. In the past decade, many have built up foreign exchange reserves, strengthened their banking systems, and turned current account deficits into surplusses – helped by rising commodity prices. Speculative investors such as hedge funds had been borrowing cheaply and investing in riskier but higher yielding assets in, for example, Turkey, Hungary, South Africa and Iceland – a strategy known as the carry trade. But the pressure of rising interest rates in the US, Europe and Japan sent investors on a selling spree. Bouts of geopolitical upheaval such as the current crisis in the Middle East can easily stifle risk appetite. But for now, Mr Das of Dresdner says the market appears to have tolerance for risk. “That is not to say we are going into a new phase where people are going to buy risky assets like crazy...going forward, market participants are going to have to differentiate,” he adds. That suggests investors will need to rethink the definition of emerging markets, distinguishing between economies that have, to all intents and purposes, emerged, and those that are still works in progress. (Source: http://www.ft.com)

B. Fill in the blanks in the following statements with the words below: Federal Reserve Bank European exchange rate mechanism European Monetary System core inflation sell-off Fed The 1.______ (or ERM) was a system introduced by the European Community in March 1979, as part of the 2.______ (EMS), to reduce exchange-rate variability and achieve monetary stability in Europe, in preparation for Economic and Monetary Union and the introduction of a single currency, the Euro, which took place in January 1999. The central bank of the United States which governs monetary policy and derives its authority from the US Congress is called the 3.____. Just as you can borrow from a bank, a bank can borrow from 4._____. Created in 1913, this bank for bankers can influence short-term interest rates and bank balance sheets. The rate of inflation excluding certain sectors whose prices are most volatile, specifically food and energy, is called 5.______. A 6.________is a period of intense selling of securities and commodities triggered by declining prices. It usually causes prices to plummet even more sharply.

Assignment 3. Team up with people from other groups. Discuss the points given below using the information from the texts above.

the role of emerging markets in the Forex world factors that weaken a currency links between the Forex market and other markets (e.g. tourism market) factors that strengthen a currency the role of the Federal Reserve Bank in the world economy

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Date: 2015-09-23; view: 339; Нарушение авторских прав

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